UP polls: Facing a tough battle in Varanasi, BJP dials Modi

“The money spent on their travels would have been sufficient to rebuild all the roads of this district,” says Shiv Kumar, a local social activist.

“At this rate,” he says, “they should have been able to win all the 8 Assembly seats of Varanasi district – five of which comprise the Lok Sabha constituency and three others. Even with polling just a week away, they are unable to say that they are winning even a single seat,” claims Kumar.

The battleground

The five Assembly seats that comprise Modi’s Lok Sabha constituency are: the three city segments of Varanasi Cantonment, Varanasi North and Varanasi South and two dehat or semi-rural assembly segments of Sevapuri and Rohaniya.

The Varanasi district has three additional Assembly constituencies – Pindra, Ajgara (Reserved) and Shivpur.

In the last UP Assembly, the BJP held all the three city Assembly seats of Varanasi North, South and Cantonment. Rohaniya and Sevapuri had elected Samajwadi Party (SP) candidates. Ajgara and Shivpur had gone to the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and Pindra to the Congress.

How do the BJP’s chances stack up in these constituencies this time around?

The party is either facing a tough contest in the Varanasi constituencies or there are party rebels intent on spoiling its chances.

As always, the party is looking towards Prime Minister Modi for help. He is expected to visit Varanasi on three consecutive days – March 4, 5 and 6 to address three meetings and travel through Varanasi. The party hopes that this will motivate the voters, fan the ‘Modi wave’ and help it win the seemingly difficult seats.

However, as of now, there are keen contests in all Assembly segments. The BJP is hoping the scenario would be completely different after Modi’s last minute rallies.

Varanasi Cantonment

In Varanasi Cantt, BJP’s candidate Saurabh Srivastava faces dissidence from within. His is the son of Jyotsana Srivastava who held the seat in 2012. Her husband Late Harishchandra Srivastava had been elected to the UP Assembly thrice from Varanasi.

His main opponent from the Congress, Anil Srivastava, is a four-time loser from the same constituency but is well-liked by the people. The large minority vote in the constituency is likely to go en bloc to the Congress. BJP workers admit that the alliance between the Congress and the Samajwadi Party is working very effectively on the ground in Varanasi.

Current likely advantage: Congress

Varanasi North

Here the main contest is between Sujit Maurya of the BSP, a man with charming personality and clean image and BJP’s Ravindra Jaiswal, the sitting MLA. The Congress has fielded Samad Ansari who is originally from the SP but is contesting under Congress’ banner.

The BJP candidate faces anti-incumbency as well as a rebel candidate – Sujit Singh Tika who is being supported by the Apna Dal of Krishna Patel. He was the President of the BJP’s Kisan Morcha and has a good hold over the youth. The BJP is apprehensive of the damage he can cause.

Current likely advantage: Bahujan Samaj Party

Varanasi South

In this Assembly constituency, the main contender is Congress party’s Rajesh Mishra, an extremely popular candidate and a former MP from Varanasi. He is contesting against BJP’s Neelkanth Tiwari. BJP supporters in this segment are angry at the party choosing Tiwari over their popular seven-time MLA Shyamdev Roy Choudhury.

Some Bengali voters in this Assembly segment say that the BJP needs to be punished for denying a popular leader his legitimate claim. “Some voters are saying that the BJP needs to be told that it cannot do whatever it likes,” says Ashok Kanti Chakravarty, an educationist.

Current likely advantage: Congress

Sevapuri

In this constituency too the BJP faces a rebellion. It is supporting its alliance partner Anupriya Patel’s Apna Dal (Sonelal)’s candidate Neelratan Patel. His main opponent is SP’s Surendra Patel, brother of Mahendra Patel who is contesting from adjoining Rohaniya.

The filed has been spoiled for the BJP by Krishna Patel’s Apna Dal. It has fielded a BJP rebel, Vibhuti Naryan Rai, who was denied a ticket by the latter. He is expected to cut into Neelratan Patel’s votes.

Current likely advantage: Samajwadi Party

Rohaniya

Here the main contest is triangular – between BJP’s Surendra Narain Audhe, Krishna Patel of Apna Dal and SP’s sitting MLA and minister, Mahendra Patel.

Mahendra Patel had defeated Krishna Patel in a by-election at the height of the enthusiasm for Modi, three months after the last Lok Sabha polls.

Once again, it is not clear whether the BJP is in an advantageous position in this constituency as of now.

Current likely advantage: Samajwadi Party

This leaves the remaining Assembly segments of Varanasi district (which do not fall under Modi’s Lok Sabha constituency).

In Pindra, Ajai Rai of the Congress, a three-time MLA, is currently believed to be ahead of his rivals Avadhesh Singh of BJP and Babulal Patel of BSP.

In Ajgara (Reserved) constituency, the sitting MLA from BSP, Tribhuvan Ram is believed to be giving a tough fight to BJP-supported Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party’s Kailash Sonkar. BJP supporters upset with the party fielding Sonkar are expected to vote for Tribhuvan Ram on the rebound.

In Shivpur, the contest is between Birendra Singh of BSP and Congress-SP alliance’s Anand Mohan Guddu. The BJP candidate, Anil Rajbhar is not considered strong even by party insiders.

In this scenario, when there seems no clear advantage to it anywhere in Varanasi, the BJP is worried.

Yet, the party’s advantage is that Modi’s image as a harbinger of change and his narrative of “the chaiwala who became Prime Minister” still enjoys public purchase.

That is why BJP party workers in Varanasi believe that the Prime Minister through his last minute rallies and public appearances will change the electoral outcome in its favour.