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Why the Uttarakhand election may be decided by rebels and turncoats

Akash Bisht | Updated on: 11 February 2017, 5:41 IST

With only nine days left for polls in Uttarakhand, the Congress and the BJP are both in a dilemma over how to deal with the rebels who are threatening to derail their prospects. Both parties, which have taken turns to rule the state since it was formed at the turn of the century, are facing stiff resistance from rebel candidates contesting as independents. Political observers in the state claim that neither party has the edge over the other and that the contest is close on every seat, thanks largely to the rebels.

Both parties have fielded turncoats, with the BJP leading allotting tickets to 13 former Congress leaders and the grand old party fielding seven BJP and two BSP rebels. Giving tickets to "outsiders" has not gone down well with the grassroots leaders, who have decided to contest as independents. Of the 70 assembly seats, rebel candidates are in the fray on nearly 50.

Also Read: Uttarakhand polls: In BJP's first list, 7 rebels who felled Harish Rawat govt

Such is the extent of the rebellion that the BJP has suspended 50 of its local leaders while the Congress has removed over 30 functionaries. Most of those suspended have filed nomination papers as independents, thereby threatening the prospects of official candidates.

Three seats stand out as the perfect examples of how the two parties denied tickets to local leaders to accommodate either a turncoat or an outsider, only to face a rebellion. The seats are Kotdwar, Yamkeshwar and Chaubattakhal.

In Kotdwar, the BJP fielded former Congress heavyweight Harak Singh Rawat, who was instrumental in destabilising the Harish Rawat government last year. Harak faces stiff competition from Congress' sitting MLA Surendra Singh Negi, who defeated former BJP chief minister BC Khanduri in 2012. Several local leaders and workers are miffed with the BJP leadership for giving the ticket to an outsider at the cost of former party MLA Shailendra Singh Rawat.

Angry at being ignored by the party, Shailendra promptly joined the Congress and was given a ticket from Yamkeshwar. His nomination, however, came at the expense of the Congress' sitting MLA Renu Bist, who is now contesting as an independent. Interestingly, the BJP nominated BC Khanduri's daughter Ritu Bhushan Khanduri from this seat, sparking a revolt by former legislator Vijaya Barthwal. The BJP though has now convinced Barthwal to withdraw her nomination as an independent.

In Chaubattakhal, the BJP's Satpal Maharaj, a former Congressman, is up against Kavindra Ishtwal, who is contesting as an independent after being ignored by the BJP in favour of Maharaj. The BJP's former state president Teerath Singh Rawat too had rebelled for being denied a ticket, but he was pacified with the post of party national secretary. However, the local cadres of the party are still unhappy with Maharaj's nomination and they could work to undermine him.

Also Read: Meet the six key men behind the Uttarakhand political crisis

In such a scenario, the possibility of a hung assembly or Mayawati's BSP becoming the kingmaker is not being ruled out. In fact, even the state BSP leadership remains optimistic of winning the key to power. The BSP made its electoral debut in Uttarakhand in 2002, contesting 68 seats and winning seven with a vote share of 11.2%.

In 2007, the party's vote share jumped to 11.76% as it bagged eight seats. In 2012, however, the BSP managed only three seats although its vote share again went up to 12.28%.

There are at least a dozen Muslim-dominated seats where the contest is directly between the Congress and the BSP. If the latter wins a substantial number of seats, it is likely to decide who will form the next government. In fact, it was the BSP's support that proved crucial to the Rawat's government's survival in the wake of the President's Rule fiasco. "We will hold the key to whoever rules Uttarakhand. It will all depend on Behenji, of course, but I do not see any possibility of the BSP aligning with the BJP," said a senior BSP leader, on the condition of anonymity.

The BJP, meanwhile, is banking on Prime Minister Narendra Modi's popularity to swing votes. Indeed, it is for this reason that the party has not announced its chief ministerial candidate. This strategy though has baffled many state BJP leaders. If the BJP could win solely due to Modi's popularity, then where was the need to give tickets to Congress turncoats? asked a BJP leader. "It has made matters worse," he added.

Also Read: Poetic justice? How BJP fell into its own trap in Uttarakhand

First published: 6 February 2017, 10:17 IST