Jamui, Jhajha warn Lalu: don't take the Yadav vote for granted

QUICK PILL

The contest

• In Jamui and Jhajha, Lalu Prasad enjoys goodwill among Yadavs

• He may, however, not be able to transfer their vote to his allies

• NDA too is wooing a section of the Yadavs along with the OBCs

The equation

• Breaking up the Muslim-Yadav combine will greatly help NDA

• Lalu must retain the Yadav for the survival of his party

• Nitish needs Lalu\'s core vote bank to hold on to power

Jamui is a snapshot of how close the contest in Bihar is, and a reminder that no party can afford to take any voter for granted.

In Kediatola village of this constituency, shortly before it voted in the first phase, the elders have gathered at the chaupal to discuss the polling.

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The village is predominantly Yadav, who make up 80 of the 94 households. They live off farming and most own cattle. As for social development, Kediatola has little literacy and no electricity or toilets. Only four men and two women have ever been to high school.

"So, who are you voting for?" I ask the elders at the chaupal.

"Lantern, of course," they reply in chorus, referring to the poll symbol of Lalu Prasad's RJD.

"And who did you vote for in the Lok Sabha election?"

"Narendra Modi."

"Then why aren't you voting for him again?"

Silence.

"Why the lantern this time?" I rephrase my question.

"It is a matter of Lalu's pride. Also, our MP Jai Prakash Yadav's brother is in the fray. How can we let him lose?" one of them replies.

But doesn't voting for Lalu mean supporting Nitish Kumar? And isn't that odd given the village has barely seen any development during his rule?

"We don't know much about that," is the common refrain from the elders Santosh Yadav and Anandi. "All we know is that we have to make the RJD victorious."

Santosh Yadav and Anandi of Kediatola: All we know is that we have to make the RJD victorious

Nearly 8 km from Kediatola lies Bela. The village is part of Jamui district but votes in Jhajha constituency. Here, former JD(U) minister Damodar Rawat is fighting a battle for political survival.

Rawat, an EBC, has in the past relied on the support of tribals. This time, they seem inclined to support BJP's Ravindra Yadav or the independent Vinod Yadav.

As for the Yadavs of the village, they generally favour Lalu but have no love lost for the Grand Alliance. They would rather choose a Yadav nominee of the BJP than a non-Yadav of the alliance. A group of Yadavs that has accompanied us from Kediatola is at a loss to explain this development.

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The trend isn't much different elsewhere in rural Jamui and Jhajha: Lalu can count on Yadav support for his own party, but may find it difficult to transfer the vote to his alliance.

That's no comforting thought for the RJD chief or Nitish, for the Yadavs form perhaps the most decisive vote block for the Grand Alliance.

Little comfort

In Jamui city, the Yadav politics plays to a different dynamic. They are more favourable to the alliance, Lalu contesting or not.

Jamui district has a considerable Naxal presence but that hasn't prevented it from being politically vibrant. It's represented in the Lok Sabha by LJP chief Ram Vilas Paswan's son Chirag.

It's also a stronghold of Narendra Singh, once a close aide of Nitish who got both his sons elected to the assembly from here in 2010. He is trying to repeat the feat, this time by siding with Jitan Ram Manjhi. But he has a tough task on hand as the Yadavs are consolidating against him.

Suman Yadav, a young man from the community, explains the new dynamic thus: "Lalu and Nitish know they can't claim monopoly over Yadav votes. So, Lalu is pandering to them. He has given 48 tickets to Yadavs from his quota of 101 seats."

"He has also sent a signal to Dalits and MBCs by not fielding even a single Bhumihar candidate."

Suman continues, "Nitish has tried to balance Lalu's focus on Yadav by fielding only 12 Yadav candidates. The Congress has followed suit by giving tickets only to four Yadavs from its quota of 41 seats." And the Yadavs, it seems, are responding to the overtures.

BJP's ploy is to woo a section of the Yadavs along with the backward castes, says Suman Yadav

The NDA, on the other hand, is also aware of the importance of the Yadav vote. It has fielded 26 of them, 22 by the BJP and two each by Paswan and Manjhi. "The BJP's ploy is to woo a section of the Yadavs along with the non-Yadav backward caste voters," Suman says.

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Political analysts in Patna agree with Suman's reading. The BJP, they say, has ample reason to play the balancing act with the Yadavs in ticket distribution. A good number of the Yadavs voted for it in the Lok Sabha election without much convincing and the party is trying to keep them within the fold.

In this election, the Yadavs are central to the calculations of all major parties. The NDA knows that breaking up the Muslim-Yadav combine would greatly ease its path to power. Lalu knows retaining the Yadav vote is necessary for the survival of his party, and dynasty. And Nitish needs Lalu's core vote bank to hold on to power.