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Break point: are the US and Britain working to Balkanise Syria?

Niraj Srivastava | Updated on: 22 June 2016, 22:53 IST

The conflict in Syria, which has been raging for over five years now, is one of the most tragic events of our time. It has caused widespread death and destruction - almost half a million people have been killed, mostly innocent civilians - and produced nearly 12 million refugees, thousands of whom have drowned in the Mediterranean Sea while trying to reach Europe from Turkey and Libya.

Since 27 February, a partial truce of sorts has been in place in Syria, which has been exploited by all sides to strengthen themselves - by acquiring more weapons and consolidating positions on the ground. At the same time, "peace talks" have been going on between the Bashar al-Assad regime and some of the opposition groups in Geneva, mediated by the UN. These talks have not produced any result, mainly because the opposition groups want President Assad to step down immediately - a demand rejected outright by the Syrian government. It is highly unlikely the talks will produce any agreement in the future. Syria's future will be decided on the battlefield.

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Kerry's Plan B for Syria is strikingly similar to Oded Yinon Plan for Greater Israel. What's it all about?

On 3 May, US Secretary of State John Kerry warned President Assad of the consequences "of a new US approach" if he did not accept a political transition by 1 August 2016, without specifying what the "new US approach" would be. Earlier, on 23 February, Kerry had informed the US Senate Foreign Relations Committee that America had been discussing a "Plan B" in case the negotiations in Geneva did not produce an outcome acceptable to both sides. This raises the question: what exactly is Kerry's "Plan B" in Syria?

Several analysts believe that "Plan B" primarily involves Balkanization of Syria along religious and ethnic lines. Such ideas have been floated in the past by some US officials and commentators, including former US National Security Adviser Zbigniew Brzezinski, Brookings Institution Senior Fellow Michael O' Hanlon, and Robin Wright, a scholar at the US Institute for Peace and Wilson Centre. These ideas are strikingly similar to the "Oded Yinon Plan", enunciated in 1982 by the Israeli journalist Oded Yinon, as discussed below.

Dangerous ideas?

In his book The Grand Chessboard: American Primacy and its Geostrategic Imperatives, published in 1998, Brzezinski talks about "micro-states and mini-states". He suggests the construction of small states based on ethnicity, religion and other identities, which would be too weak and impotent to resist the will of larger nations, coalitions and banking or industrial corporations.

O' Hanlon outlined his views on Syria in a series of articles published in June and October, 2015. In an article titled "Syria's One Hope May Be As Dim As Bosnia's Once Was", he wrote: "A future Syria could be a confederation of several sectors: one largely Alawite (Assad's own sect), spread along the Mediterranean coast; another Kurdish, along the north and northeast corridors near the Turkish border; a third primarily Druze, in the southwest; a fourth largely made up of Sunni Muslims; and then a central zone of intermixed groups in the country's main population belt from Damascus to Aleppo. The last zone would likely be difficult to stabilise, but the others might not be so tough."

It may be noted that O'Hanlon never considers the moral implications of destroying a sovereign nation, killing tens of thousands of civilians, and displacing millions of others.

A group of US officials want Obama to remove Assad by force. He may not oblige. But President Hillary?

In an opinion piece published in The New York Times in September 2013, Robin Wright suggested that Syria "has crumbled into three identifiable regions, each with its own flag and security forces". She went on to predict that if Syria broke up, it would have repercussions across the region, whereby five countries could become fourteen. She even offered a map of the new states.

Also read - Hope for Syria: World powers agree on cessation of hostilities in a week's time

So, how do these proposals mirror the Oded Yinon Plan for Greater Israel, which is said to enjoy considerable support in the Israeli political, military and intelligence establishments? The plan is based on the idea that Israel should reconfigure its geopolitical environment through the dismemberment of the surrounding Arab nations into weaker and smaller states.

It should, therefore, be clear by now what Kerry's "Plan B" for Syria is: Balkanization of the country into several mini-states, based on ethnic, religious, sectarian and other identities.

Evidence that Kerry's plan has already been set into motion comes from the deployment of around 300 US troops in Syria in the last few months without the permission of the Syrian government. These forces are already in action, moving towards the ISIS "capital" of Raqqa, along with the Kurdish militia. Their objective is to "liberate" Raqqa and bring it under their control. With this move, the effort to dismember Syria has already begun.

Going for broke?

The US move is being supported by the British. The Times reported on 6 June that British special forces have entered Syria for "defending a rebel unit under daily attack by ISIS". The operation marks the first instance of Britain's direct involvement in the war-torn country; its role had so far been limited to training Syrian rebel fighters in Jordan. It would not be surprising if the real objective of the British forces is to capture and hold strategic territory in Syria, in coordination with the Americans who have already established a military base at the Kurdish-controlled Abu Hajar airport in northeastern Syria.

The Syrian Army, backed by Russian air cover, is also racing towards Raqqa in a bid to wrest it from ISIS before the Americans and the Kurds do. Control of Raqqa is important strategically for a possible future gas pipeline from Qatar's North Field to Turkey and onward to Europe - a proposal President Assad turned down in 2009 in favour of a pipeline from Iran's South Pars field, the largest in the world. The $10 billion Iranian pipeline, for which Assad signed an MOU in July 2012, would cross Syria and Lebanon on its way to Europe. Assad's refusal to agree to the Qatar-Turkey pipeline is believed to be one of the major reasons why these two countries turned against him, pushing for regime change.

Also read - John Kerry in Saudi Arabia for talks on Syria war

Another curious development has been the submission of an internal memo, filed through the "dissent channel" by 51 mid-level officials of the US State Department, urging the government to carry out military strikes against the Assad regime. This was reported by The New York Times on 16 June. In effect, the memo calls on the US government to overthrow Assad by force - an act illegal under international law. While Obama is unlikely to do so, the situation could change if Hillary Clinton comes to power. She is known to be much more hawkish on America's Syria policy.

It remains to be seen if the "new US approach" materialises after 1 August, the deadline given by Kerry. It is unlikely that Obama will drastically change his policy in Syria in the last few months of his presidency. But, as mentioned above, that may happen after the new US president takes over in January next year. Direct military intervention by the US and its allies to overthrow Assad by force could then become a real possibility. How would Russia react to it? That, too, remains to be seen.

Niraj Srivastava is a former Indian ambassador to Denmark and Uganda. He also served in diplomatic missions in the US, Syria, Libya, Saudi Arabia and Canada.

First published: 22 June 2016, 22:53 IST
 
Niraj Srivastava

Niraj Srivastava is a former Indian ambassador to Denmark and Uganda. He also served in diplomatic missions in the US, Syria, Libya, Saudi Arabia and Canada.