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The Iran Nuclear deal: is it time to celebrate yet?

Aastha Tyagi | Updated on: 15 July 2015, 12:53 IST

The US-led deal to curtail and control Iran's nuclear programme has been finalised. In turn, Iran gets sanctions lifted against it.

In this moment of euphoria, we ask whether Iran will be able to reap the benefits just yet.

Crude prices to go down

Iran has the fourth largest crude reserves in the world. Due to the sanctions, it could not exploit all the crude fields and does not have the mechanism to begin production worthy of export. After EU imposed sanctions on Iran in 2012 (who gave an ultimatum to insurance companies from transporting oil from country), their exports went down by half (from 2.6 million barrels to 1.4 million).

The countries that were currently importing oil were mainly other Asian countries like India, Japan, China, Turkey and South Korea. Now that the sanctions will be lifted, the reserves could be available for the world and hence, could contribute to bringing down oil prices.

But experts believe that the impact on the oil prices would translate into a fall only after six months of the deal (which is expected to be lifted in 2016).

But why would it take six months?

Had the deal been signed before 9 July, the US Congress would have taken 30 days to pass the deal. Since the deal was finalised on 14 June, now the Congress will take 60 days.But even though it has been finalised, the conversation in the US itself, would not be smooth ride.

There is a lot of opposition within the Congress (primarily, Republican candidates) and Israel-sympathisers. Israel called the deal a 'historic mistake'.

There are other hurdles too

International Atomic Energy Association's chief, Yukiya Amano, has said that the 'road map' for the deal will be processed by the end of 2015. This entails UN-led inspection of the nuclear facilities in Iran, to make sure the country is adhering to the conditions of the deal. Further, once the first round is done, Iran will have to attract investments and technology to develop its crude resources.

First published: 15 July 2015, 12:53 IST
 
Aastha Tyagi @snnickel

Before being drawn into the yellow, sunlit Catch office, Aastha worked as a Junior Assistant Producer for ET NOW. She has lived her life in Delhi and Mumbai, managing to get an education while traipsing back and forth. She studied media and culture studies at Tata Institute of Social Sciences, Mumbai, and has a degree in English Lit from IP College, Delhi University. Constantly caffeinated, she has a weirdly sharp memory for Bollywood music from the '90s.

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