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#BiharResults: how Modi's rallies played out: a strike rate of 13/28

Aditya Menon | Updated on: 8 November 2015, 18:15 IST
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The rallies

  • PM Narendra Modi addressed 29 rallies in Bihar
  • Named Parivartan Rallies, they showcased BJP\'s message of change

The success rate

  • BJP could win in only 13 out of the 28 places at which Modi spoke
  • Most of the rallies were in urban and semi-urban areas

More in the story

  • Why were Modi\'s rallies more effective in the later phases?
  • Where did Modi\'s rally translate into votes and where it didn\'t

"Parivartan" or change was the main plank with which the Bharatiya Janata Party went into the Bihar Assembly elections.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who was presented as an icon of change, addressed as many as 29 rallies across the state.

It is unprecedented for a Prime Minister to address so many rallies for a state election. Even Modi addressed less number of rallies in the states that went the polls last year.

Modi addressed 29 rallies in Bihar, an unprecedented number for any PM in an Assembly election

Failed Parivartan

The people of Bihar seem to have rejected the NDA's message of change by voting overwhelmingly in favour of the Nitish Kumar-led Mahagathbandhan which has won an absolute majority in the state.

Even though Modi's Parivartan Rallies drew large crowds, mainly due to the tireless work put in by the BJP's rank and file, they don't seem to have translated into votes.

Modi Rallies_EMBED1_PTI

Photo: PTI

The Prime Minister addressed rallies at 28 places. At one place - Muzaffarpur - there were 2 rallies: the inaugural Parivartan Rally on 25 July and another one on 30 October.

The NDA was able to win only 13 out of the 28 Vidhan Sabha seats where Modi's Parivartan Rallies were held.

Of course, the BJP's spokespersons have been trying their best to insulate Modi from the defeat. But the Mahagathbandhan made it a point to criticse the PM for addressing a large number of rallies. Poking fun at Modi, RJD chief Lalu Prasad said, "which PM addresses so many rallies for a state election? He is less of a PM and more of a Pracharak".

BJP did poorly even in many urban areas

It can be argued that the BJP fared much worse in areas where Modi did not address any rallies. But this argument is misleading.

All the 28 places where Modi's Parivartan Rallies were held happen to be urban or semi-urban areas, where the BJP is naturally expected to do better. Almost all the rallies were organised at or near district headquarters.

There is a clear difference in the impact of the Modi rallies in the initial and later phases of the Assembly elections.

Modi's rallies were more effective in the later phases, in which BJP tried to polarise voters

Modi performed better in the later phases

Modi addressed rallies in 11 places before the long Navratri break, out of which the BJP won only 2. In the 17 places Modi addressed rallies after the break, the BJP won 11.

Immediately before the Navratri break, the BJP is said to have received feedback about "fatigue" with the PM. As a result a number of his rallies were cancelled. After the break, the BJP went for a more polarising campaign.

Modi Rallies_EMBED2_PTI

Photo: PTI

This began with Modi's own speech in Buxar on 26 October in which he had alleged that the Mahagathbandhan would take away 5% from the quotas for SCs and OBCs and give it minorities. Clearly, the polarising campaign combined with the PM's speeches seem to have yielded greater dividends for the BJP.

Here's a list of Modi's rallies, as listed in the BJP's official website, and how the NDA performed in them.

Date: 2 November

  • Place: Purnea
  • Winner/Lead: BJP

  • Place: Forbesganj
  • Winner/Lead: BJP

  • Place: Darbhanga
  • Winner/Lead: BJP

Date: 1 November

  • Place: Madhubani
  • Winner/Lead: RJD

  • Place: Madhepura
  • Winner/Lead: RJD

  • Place: Katihar
  • Winner/Lead: BJP leads

Date: 30 October

  • Place: Gopalganj
  • Winner/Lead: BJP
  • Place: Muzaffarpur
  • Winner/Lead: BJP

Date: 27 October

  • Place: Sitamarhi
  • Winner/Lead: RJD
  • Place: Bettiah
  • Winner/Lead: INC


  • Place: Motihari
  • Winner/Lead: BJP

Date: 26 October

  • Place: Buxar
  • Winner/Lead: BJP
  • Place: Siwan
  • Winner/Lead: BJP

Date: 25 October

  • Place: Chhapra
  • Winner/Lead: BJP
  • Place: Hajipur
  • Winner/Lead: BJP

  • Place: Biharsharif
  • Winner/Lead: JD(U)

  • Place: Naubatpur block, Patna - (Constituency: Bikram)
  • Winner/Lead: Congress

Date: 12 October (Navratri Break)

  • Place: Jahanabad
  • Winner/Lead: RJD
  • Place: Bhabhua
  • Winner/Lead: BJP

Date: 9 October

  • Place: Sasaram (RJD)
  • Winner/Lead: RJD
  • Place: Aurangabad
  • Winner/Lead: Congress

Date: 8 October

  • Place: Munger
  • Winner/Lead: RJD
  • Place: Begusarai
  • Winner/Lead: Congress

  • Place: Samastipur
  • Winner/Lead: RJD

  • Place: Nawada
  • Winner/Lead: RJD

Date: 2 October

  • Place: Banka
  • Winner/Lead: BJP

Date: 1 September

  • Place: Bhagalpur
  • Winner/Lead: Congress

Date: 18 August

  • Place: Saharsa
  • Winner/Lead: RJD

Date: 25 July

  • Place: Muzaffarpur
  • Winner/Lead: BJP
First published: 8 November 2015, 18:15 IST
 
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