Bihar polls: Nitish may be ahead but don't write off BJP just yet

The polls so far

• Two phases of polling have been completed in Bihar.

• The fate of 81 assembly seats in 18 districts have been sealed.

• The fight is still on for 162 constituencies. This means that two-thirds of the seats in Bihar are still up for grabs

• It is still too early to predict who will win

• Most of the areas that have already voted were "tough zones" from a security point of view, given the Naxal threat.

• Yet the polling was largely peaceful.

• The Grand Alliance held 55 out of these 81 seats.

• Pundits say that the Grand Alliance has done well in the first two phases.

Phase 3

• Voting for the third phase will take place on 28 October, after a gap of 12 days from the previous phase.

• A large number of Biharis working in other states have come back for important festivals like Dussehra and Muharram.

• As a result, the election scene has heated up even more.

• Many regions in the remaining phases aren't as favourable for the Grand Alliance.

• For example, regions like Champaran, Patna, Buxar and Bhojpur are traditional bastions of the BJP.

• The Grand Alliance is facing a tough battle in Darbhanga-Madhubani as well, which are upper-caste dominated areas.

• Asaduddin Owaisi's AIMIM and Pappu Yadav may act as spoilers for the Grand Alliance in Seemanchal and the Kosi region respectively.

Advantage Nitish? Not necessarily

• Some say that a large number of women came out to vote for Nitish Kumar in the first two phases.

• This might not necessarily be the case. The sentiment among female voters is yet to be tested after the JD(U)-BJP break-up

• Yes, women have hailed Nitish Kumar's free bicycle scheme for girl students and 50% reservation for women in local body elections. But that didn't work in the JD(U)'s favour in the Lok Sabha elections.

• Many women favored Nitish because of his opposition to Lalu Prasad. Will they change their stand now that the two are allies?

• The change in the BJP's tactics after first two phases is being seen as admission of defeat by many.

• Even in the 2005 Assembly elections, the BJP changed its strategy mid-way during the elections and projected Nitish Kumar as the CM candidate. It paid rich dividends in the remaining phases.

• Apparently, some of Prime Minister Narendra Modi's rallies were cancelled and Modi and Amit Shah were replaced by state leaders in the campaign hoardings.

• The opposition said that the BJP campaign is losing steam. But perhaps the rallies were cancelled because of the festive season.

• It isn't just the NDA, even the Grand Alliance had to change some of its hoardings, to accommodate leaders other that Nitish Kumar.

Too close to call

• In short, this is a closely contested election with no wave in favour of any alliance.

• The voters are still holding their cards close to their chests.

• The Grand Alliance is fighting to prevent a split in its core vote bank.

• The NDA is striving to broaden its base by accommodating new caste groups.

• The key to victory lies with Dalits and Most Backward Classes. But, nobody is in a position to predict which way they are going to vote.

• Trends vary from seat to seat.

• Nitish Kumar is undoubtedly the most popular leader in the state. But the claims of a landslide can go against him.