Can a minority Conservative government survive? Let’s look at the maths

Is a minority government unstable?

The predominant view seems to be that minority governments are alien to Britain’s majoritarian political culture and liable to be unstable. Indeed, an early general election to break the deadlock has already been mooted. However, minority governments are common in Europe. There is currently one in Denmark, and a minority coalition in Sweden, for instance.

The stability of minority governments can be affected by a number of variables. The first is whether the government finds itself ideologically positioned in between parties to its left and right, and thereby able to play them off against each other. This “median legislator theorem” predicts that such governments can be stable.

If the DUP is regarded as being to the right of the Conservatives while all other parties are to the left, then the Conservatives do indeed control the median legislator (the 322nd MP in a left-right ranking of all 643 non-abstentionist MPs). That implies they have great bargaining power.

However, while that applies on social issues, where the DUP are to the right, it is probably not the case with economic policy and Brexit. Here, the DUP holds more statist and soft-Brexit positions. That would make the Conservatives the most right-wing party and not in control of the median legislator. It’s one reason why the government might end up watering down Brexit.

A second factor affecting the stability of a minority government is its degree of internal unity. If even a few Conservative MPs are willing to rebel on certain issues, the government could be defeated. A minority administration requires a very effective whipping operation in parliament and willingness by the government to listen to its MPs – and those of other parties.

The third factor is the confidence and supply agreement, which will allow the government to function in a basic way, passing its budget and ensuring its own survival. But votes on all other matters would not be covered, and so the government would need to build new majorities on a case-by-case basis. Again, parliamentary management will be crucial because parliament becomes stronger in relation to the executive.

Any other options?

Some have suggested the possibility of a minority Labour government, backed by the SNP and the Liberal Democrats. However, it would still need the support of the DUP – which might well be possible on economic matters, although the DUP wants nothing to do with Jeremy Corbyn.

One potential problem with a Labour-led minority government follows from the new procedures on “English votes for English laws”. On bills or sections of bills relating solely to England (or England and Wales), MPs for English (or English and Welsh) constituencies possess a veto as they must pass consent motions before they are voted on by all UK MPs. In the election, the Conservatives won 297 of the 533 English constituencies, a majority of 61, and in England and Wales, they won 305 out of 573 seats, a majority of 37. In the event of a minority Labour administration at Westminster, these Conservative MPs would be able to block a Labour government’s English (and English and Welsh) bills, including its plan to abolish tuition fees.

Minority government will be a challenge in a majoritarian setting and another election cannot be ruled out. However, we shouldn’t automatically assume that it will fail, not least because the Conservatives will not want an early election unless they are confident of winning.

The 2010-15 coalition survived predictions it would not last because the participants learnt how to make it work. With compromise, intelligent party management, and possibly under a new prime minister, the same could be true of this experiment in minority government.

Tom Quinn, Senior Lecturer, Department of Government, University of Essex

This article was originally published on The Conversation. Read the original article.