Team Shivaay & team Ae Dil Hai Muskhil are at war. But Box Office numbers don't lie
Two of the most anticipated films of the year, Shivaay and Ae Dil Hai Mushkil, are all set to lock horns at the Box Office this Diwali, 28 October.
While the trailer of Ae Dil Hai Mushkil garnered a lukewarm response, the music of the film has topped the Bollywood charts - a factor that is bound to ensure a good opening for the Ranbir Kapoor film.
In comparison, the trailer of Shivaay was showered with praise from viewers and trade alike. However, the average music of the film has dampened the buzz.
With both films being pre-Diwali releases, they aren't expected to record 'humongous' collections. A detailed prediction will follow in the coming days. The winner will reap the benefit of the Diwali holidays - 31 October to 1 November 2016.
Also Read: Shivaay vs Ae Dil Hai Mushkil: Choose your pick with the help of this simple core study
The distributors have blocked the screens for both films. An official screen count will be reported a few days before the film hits the screens.
The Cine Owners and Exhibitors Association has requested single screen owners to refrain from screening Ae Dil Hai Mushkil at their properties. However, the final decision lies with the respective exhibitors. Reports about ADHM being banned are false as it is only the court of law and the Censor Board who have the power to ban a film from releasing in India.
Ahead of the clash, here is a breakdown of the business Shivaay and Ae Dil Hai Mushkil need to record to emerge victorious:
Shivaay in numbers
Cost
Cost of Production: Rs 90 crore
Print and Publicity: Rs 15 crore
Total: Rs 105 crore
Recovery
Satellite rights: Rs 40 crore (Ajay Devgn's deal with Star Network)
Music rights: Rs 10 crore (T-Series)
Ancillary Sources: Rs 10 crore
Total recovery: Rs 60 crore
Recovery pending: 45 crore
The Ajay Devgn film will break even in India at collections close to Rs 100 crore. The revenue from the overseas market will result in a surplus, thus helping the makers rake in minimal profits. Devgn, who is also directing the film, has restricted the budget of the film to Rs 105 crore. The budget of the film could have easily been Rs 160 crore, considering the scale of the action thriller.
Here is a look at the collections Shivaay will have to record in India in order to bag a 'hit' verdict:
- Blockbuster: Rs 166 and above
- Super Hit: Rs 141 to 165
- Hit: Rs 116 to 140 crore
Here are the numbers that will spell doom for the Shivaay team:
- Flop: Below Rs 90 crore
- Average: Rs 91 to 115 crore
Ae Dil Hai Mushkil in numbers
Cost
Cost of Production: Rs 75 crore
Print and Publicity: Rs 15 crore
Total: Rs 90 crore
Recovery
Satellite Rights: Rs 30 crore
Music Rights: Rs 15 crore (Sony Music)
Ancillary Sources: Rs 10 crore
Total Recovery: Rs 55 crore
Recovery Pending: Rs 35 crore
Ae Dil Hai Mushkil is a much safer bet for all those involved as it will break even with Indian Box Office collections close to Rs 75 crore. The film has an added benefit of Karan Johar's goodwill in the overseas market where ADHM is expected to outperform almost all Bollywood films released this year by a big margin - barring Sultan.
Also Read: Shivaay vs Ae Dil Hai Mushkil: Alia Bhatt replaces Kajol as Karan Johar's lucky charm!
In terms of Return on Investment, Ae Dil Hai Mushkil may also record success given the controlled economics and terrific scope for business abroad.
Here is a look at the collections Ae Dil Hai Mushkil will have to record in India in order to bag a 'hit' verdict:
- Blockbuster: Rs 135 crore and above
- Super Hit: Rs 116 - 135 crore
- Hit: Rs 95 to 115 crore
Here are the numbers that will spell doom for the Ae Dil Hai Mushkil team
- Flop: Below Rs 75 crore
- Average: Rs 76 to 95 crore
Are you excited for this Diwali Bollywood Box Office clash? Which film will you go to watch? Tell us in the comments below.
Note: The budget figures have been gleaned from our sources. Catch cannot independently verify these numbers.
-- Edited by Blassy Boben
First published: 18 October 2016, 3:33 IST
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