Ominous sign: what Rajya Sabha poll cross-voting says about Congress in UP

Predicting the fate of the Congress in Uttar Pradesh may have been made a bit easier by three of its Muslim legislators who did not vote for Kapil Sibal in the recently held Rajya Sabha election.

Nawab Kazim Ali Khan, Mohammad Muslim and Dilnawaz Khan instead voted for the BSP. That they chose the opposition party over the ruling SP also indicates that the latter's hold on Muslims may be loosening.

It wasn't just the Muslims who cross-voted, three Hindu legislators of the Congress voted in favour of the BJP. This presents a bleak outlook for the party, in which, according to Kazim Ali Khan, decision-making is highly bureaucratic.

"The Congress does not stand even an outside chance in the forthcoming election. Even if it wins some seats, the number would be too small to be a factor in government formation," Kazim Ali says.

Also read: Battleground UP: how Mayawati is laying the groundwork for 2017

So, presumably he's hedging his bets with the BSP. Switching loyalty comes easy to the the MLA from Swar Tanda, who has earlier been with the SP and the BSP

Asked why they voted for the BSP rather than the ruling party, Kazim Ali suggested it made no sense since the Akhilesh regime is set be voted out of power "due to poor law and order situation". His money is on Mayawati returning to power.

Mohammad Muslim, the MLA from Tiloi in Rae Bareli, Sonia Gandhi's Lok Sabha constituency, was upset with his leaders for their "disinterest" in party affairs in UP. "Those surrounding Sonia and Rahul are not letting them attend to organisational matters. I voted against the party to show them the mirror."

Also, the MLA thought it prudent to wager on the BSP as the "Congress is doomed". "Dharatal me jaa rahee hai," as he put it. The party's chief whip doesn't regret parting ways with the Congress even though he is unsure of getting a BSP ticket.