Pak to make Gilgit-Baltistan a province. How will it change South Asian politics?

History of the region, and India's position

Since the Karachi Agreement of 1949, Pakistan has treated this region – once part of the Dogra Kingdom and later leased to the British, who wanted it as a strategic safety valve – as part of the 'disputed' Kashmir region. It has refrained from completely amalgamating it, despite the territory being under its control. Any change to this position would entail losing the opportunity to attack India on the Kashmir issue.

There was a drastic change in Pakistan's attitude to this region in 2009, when it was given near-provincial status under Gilgit-Baltistan Empowerment and Self-Governance Order. Till this order, the region was still referred to as I Northern Areas.

In 2015, the region saw its second Assembly polls.

“We are concerned at the continued efforts by Pakistan to deny the people of the region their political rights, and the efforts being made to absorb these territories,” Vikas Swarup, then-spokesperson of the MEA had said, articulating India's opposition to the move.

India's opposition to the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, in which the Chinese are investing more than $50 billion in Pakistan as part of the One Belt One Road project, also hinges on the fact that it passes through Gilgit-Baltistan, which India claims to be its own territory, part of Pakistan-occupied Kashmir.

Pakistani analysts, according to reports, believe that the move could, in fact, be part of the Pakistani policy to assuage the Chinese. Pakistan watchers in India, too, believe, it could very well be the reason. China has had concerns about different aspects, ranging from security to the discontentment among the local populations, through which the multi-billion-dollar corridor passes.

Difficult road ahead for Pak

It is not going to be an easy run for the Pakistani government, considering the hurdles in the way. Making Gilgit-Baltistan a province would entail a drastic change in its policy on the region, which is expected to give rise to opposition for the move from within the pro-Kashmir elements, as well as opposition from pro-independence locals.

Separatists in Jammu and Kashmir, including Yasin Malik, have in the past reportedly warned Nawaz Sharif about their reservations on how such a move could have serious implications on their stand on the Kashmir issue, or demands of an independent Kashmir.

To declare Gilgit-Baltistan as the fifth province would also require a constitutional amendment, which would need to be ratified by the Pakistani Parliament.

Prime Minister Sharif is in the eye of storm in the Panama Papers case, and may not be in a position to ensure the passage of the constitutional amendment till at least the pronouncement of the judgement by the Pakistani Supreme Court.

Pakistan is also under pressure from the international community, which is out to restrict the flow of funds to the Pakistani government if it doesn't act against the many terror outfits operating within its borders.