Rebels threaten to eat into Cong, BJP votes shares in Gujarat. Here's how

Swinging into action

Alarmed by these prospects, the two political parties have swung into action, trying to coerce the rebels to reach some sort of understanding.

It is for this reason that the Congress has deputed three of its senior leaders to hold discussions with such rebel candidates to ensure they return to the party fold and help the party put up a united front. Senior leader and leader of opposition in Rajya Sabha, Ghulam Nabi Azad, party general secretaries BK Hariprasad and Mukul Wasnik, have been asked by the party leadership to visit Ahmedabad, Rajkot and Surat to coax these rebels.

“Azad is one of the seniormost leaders in the party while Wasnik has cordial relations with some Congress leaders in Gujarat. As far as Hariprasad is concerned, he was once the state in-charge. So, if these leaders try and speak to these individuals, the chance of them withdrawing their nominations becomes high. It also shows how the party has decided to leave nothing to chance,” said a senior party functionary closely involved in these negotiations.

He further added that efforts are on to get these rebels back into the party fold to ensure that the Congress' votes don't get divided. “We will send the final report to the central leadership. However, there will only be clarity on 24 November which is also the last date for withdrawing the nominations. We are in talks with all these rebels and only hope that they can be persuaded,” the senior leader said.

He goes on to add that close to 10 rebel candidates, who could seriously influence the party's vote share, have filed nominations as independents. Kamrej in Surat district is one such assembly constituency where not one but two Congress leaders have filed nominations as independents which has the grand old party extremely worried. And, it is for this reason Azad has been asked to camp in the assembly segment.

The two rebels – Paresh Kachhadiya and Nilesh Kumbhani – have filed nominations as independents against official candidate Ashok Jirawala. Having won the seat in 2012 by a huge margin of 61,000 votes, the BJP is confident of winning the seat yet again. However, in wake of the strong anti-incumbency wave and the hurried implementation of goods and services tax (GST), the Congress is hoping to secure a win over its arch rival. But, the independents have complicated the matter for the grand old party which is hoping to settle the matter by persuading the rebels to withdraw nominations.

The other rebels who have decided to contest elections include former finance minister Babu Meghji Shah who quit the party and is contesting on a NCP ticket. Another senior leader from Amreli, Janak Tavaliya, will contest as an independent as will party's district general secretary Dharmesh Patel who filed nomination from Jalalpore. In a repeat of what happened in Kamrej, two Congress candidates will contest against the party's official candidate from Botad.

BJP's rebel problem

Meanwhile, the BJP too is grappling with the rebel problem as many of them have decided to contest against the party's official candidate as independent. In fact, the BJP's rebel problem is far more severe than that of the Congress. Known for dropping its sitting legislators, the BJP continued with the tradition and denied tickets to several sitting MLAs and ministers. Irked by the decision, these dissidents soon decided to contest as independents which has become a cause of concern for the leaders of the saffron party.

After being denied tickets, two BJP MLAs – Shamji Chauhan from Chotila and Jetha Solanki from Kodinar – have filed their nominations as independents and are certain to eat into the party's vote share. In Kodinar, the BJP won by a margin of nearly 9000 votes and the Congress would bank on Solanki to divide the votes. Moreover, atleast three BJP rebels have filed nominations as independents from Surat.

A former municipal councilor, Bhimji Patel, resigned from the party after being denied ticket and is contesting from Karanj. Interestingly, another BJP leader, Kunwarji Halpati, has resigned from the party and is contesting from two seats – Mandvi and Mangrol. These are some of the known names and reports suggest that several others who have been overlooked by the BJP will contest as independents.

The BJP witnessed protests from party cadres in Gandhinagar, Palitana, Botak, Akota and Padra constituencies over ticket distribution. There is also a lot of angst amongst party workers and leaders over tickets being allotted to the Congress turncoats who voted in favour of the BJP during the Rajya Sabha polls.

In these circumstances, 24 November remains a crucial day for both the parties which is the last day of withdrawing nomination. It remains to be seen how many rebels can the political strategists of the two parties convince to withdraw from the race. Even if they manage a handful of these rebels on key constituencies, it will be a major morale boost for both the parties in the run up to one of the most keenly contested elections in the state's recent history.

The Gujarat elections for 182 assembly constituencies would be conducted in two phases on 9 and 14 December while the results would be announced on 18 December.