Lok Sabha Elections 2019: Fifth Phase - Big test for Modi, Rahul, Sonia Gandhi

The Congress dynasty faces its toughest fight for survival in politics as the voters of Amethi and Rae Bareli in Uttar Pradesh are voting along with 49 other constitutencies in seven states in the fifth phase of Lok Sabha elections on Monday.

Congress president Rahul Gandhi’s electoral credibility is at stake as he is seeking a fourth term from Amethi, while his mother, Sonia Gandhi is eyeing a fifth consecutive victory from Rae Bareli – the last two bastions the Congress is holding on in Uttar Pradesh which sends 80 MPs to Parliament.
Even after ditching Congress from the mahaghatbhandan in these crucial elections, the SP-BSP combine did a favour to Rahul and Sonia by deciding not to put up their candidates in Amethi and Rae Bareli for the sake of any future alliance with the Congress.

But, the ground reports from Uttar Pradesh say that while Sonia Gandhi might be able to sail through as she faces a weak BJP candidate in Dinesh Singh, Rahul Gandhi is facing a formidable fight from BJP’s Smriti Irani, who ran him close even in 2014.

Smriti Irani has been carrying on an agressive campaign against Rahul over the last five years, visiting Amethi often and getting the BJP to sanction some development projects to show her commitment. She has targeted Rahul as a ‘laapata’ (missing) MP and that seems to have caught on with large sections of people.

Having selected Jagadishpur in Amethi for development as a model village under the Samsad Gram Yojana in 2014, Rahul’s lethargy in not visiting it even once in the last five years, let alone bringing any development, seems to typify his casual attitude to the people of his constituency.

Perhaps sensing the voters’ wrath this time, Rahul Gandhi has chosen to contest from a second constituency in Wyanad, Kerala, giving his opponents another reason to take potshots at him.
Elsewhere, Home Minister Rajnath Singh is seeking re-election from Lucknow, a BJP bastion which Atal Behari Vajpayee represented for five consecutive terms from 1991 to 2004. Rajnath Singh – who had won by 2 lakh margin last time – is pitted against ghatbandhan’s combined candidate, Poonam Singh, wife of actor Shatrughan Sinha. Sinha himself, who had a running battle with the BJP leadership, quit the party on the eve of elections to contest from Patna on a Congress ticket.

Poonam Singh is the richest candidate in this phase with declared assets of Rs 190 crore, but she has no political experience. Congress has also put up a candidate in Acharya Pramod Krishnam, who may cut into opposition votes. But, unlike many other BJP leaders, Rajnath Singh’s moderate stance has many admirers even among the Muslims and Lucknow might want to vote him to become a contender for prime ministership, should the BJP look for an alternative to Narendra Modi.

In Hazaribagh constituency of Jharkhand, Civil Aviation Minister Jayant Sinha is seeking re-election. Having swept all five seats in Jharkhand in 2014, the BJP has replaced four of its MPs with new faces, but retained only Sinha, which speaks volumes about how much the party values his work as a minister. This, in spite of his father Yashwant Sinha, a 3-time MP from Hazaribagh, turning a bitter critic of the Modi government and trying to embarrass it with a petition in the Supreme Court over the Rafale fighter jet deal.

Two other important constituencies in Jharkhand are Kodarma and Khunti. While it is a question of survival for Babulal Marandi, the state’s first chief minister, whose party JVM-P has aligned with the Congress, it is matter of prestige for BJP to retain this seat, having won seven times previously. In Khunti, former chief minister Arjun Munda (BJP) will have a tough fight on hand against Kali Charan Munda of the Congress, which has brought JMM and JVM-P on the same platform.

Among the seven seats going to polls in West Bengal, the two most interesting battles are in Barrackpore and Hooghly, where the BJP is challenging the might of Mamata Bannerjee. In Barrackpore, former Railway Minister Dinesh Trivedi of the Trinamool Congress is facing his own party’s rebel and sitting legislator Arjun Singh. Singh, a 4-term MLA, joined the BJP just after the elections were notified, following a high drama.

In the Hooghly constituency, Ratna De (TMC) is taking on actor Locket Chatterjee of the BJP and Pradip Saha of the CPM. Hooghly includes Singur, from where Mamata spearheaded her agitation in 2007 against land acquisition by the Tatas for their Nano small car project under the CPM government and began her rapid journey to power. Twelve years later, Singur and nearby places have turned against Mamata, for keeping them without development and without jobs.

Rajasthan’s 26 seats – all of which went to BJP last time, but being looked with coveted eyes by the Congress now – will complete the polling in this round with the elections being held in the 12 remaining constituencies.

The handsome Sports and Youth Affairs Minister Rajyavardhan Rathore (BJP) is hoping to retain Jaipur Rural seat, fighting against Krishna Poonia of the Congress. While Rathore, a shooter, was a silver medallist in the Olympics, Poonia, a discuss thrower, is already an MLA, who earned a sixth place in Olympics and a gold medal in the Commonwealth Games.

In all, when the votes are counted on May 23, the BJP’s chances of coming back to power will depend to a large extent on keeping its losses in UP, Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh to a minimum and breaking fresh grounds in states like West Bengal and Odisha.