Kairana bye-poll: BJP staring at defeat. Only communal polarisation can save it

The math

In the 2017 Assembly elections. BJP won four out of five Vidhan Sabha seats that constitute the Kairana Lok Sabha constituency: Nakur, Gangoh, Thana Bhawan and Shamli. The SP won one - Kairana Assembly seat - where Nahid Hasan defeated BJP's Mriganka Singh by over 21,000 votes. Mriganka is the daughter of BJP MP from Kairana Hukum Singh who died last year, necessitating the bye-poll. She is up against Nahid Hasan's mother Tabassum Hasan, contesting on an RLD ticket.

If all the Opposition parties - Samajwadi Party, Bahujan Samaj Party and Congress - are able to transfer their votes effectively to Rashtriya Lok Dal candidate Tabassum Hasan, the BJP will be staring at a certain defeat in Kairana.

Consider the numbers from the 2017 Assembly elections.

If the SP, BSP, Congress and RLD effectively transfer the votes they secured in the Assembly polls last year, they would have a 19% lead over the BJP. Even in the Lok Sabha polls, in which there was a Modi wave across North India and a communal polarisation in West UP, BJP's Hukum Singh was only marginally ahead of the combined Opposition vote.

Social coalition

The social arithmetic, too, favours the Opposition candidate. Out of nearly 17 lakh voters in Kairana, there are 5.5 lakh Muslims, 2.5 lakh Dalits, and 1.5 lakh Jats. Together these communities account for nearly 60% of the constituency's population. The BJP is relying on about 2.5 lakh Upper Caste votes and 3.5-4 lakh votes of non-Jat OBC communities like Kashyaps, Sainis, Gujjars, Prajapatis etc. 

The BJP is also additionally counting on getting a significant chunk of Jat votes, which had propelled it to victory in 2014. It is also playing the communal card in Dalit localities, hoping that the community will vote for it in the absence of active campaigning by BSP supremo Mayawati. 

BJP hopes that if the communal card and Modi's campaign works, the RLD will be left with just Muslim votes and some Jat votes.  

On the Opposition side, the campaign is being spearheaded by RLD leader Jayant Chaudhary, who is countering the communal polarisation by saying that the election is about "Ganna (sugarcane) not Jinnah". 

This will be a real test for the Opposition, more than even Phulpur and Gorakhpur, where communal issues did not come in the forefront. If the Opposition can get Jats and Dalits to back a Muslim candidate in a communal hotbed like Kairana, it would mean that the BJP's Hindu coalition has decisively crumbled in UP. No wonder Modi and Adityanath are sparing no effort to prevent an Opposition victory.