As Gogoi stares at anti-incumbency, Congress warms up to AIUDF

QUICK PILL

Anti-incumbency

• After three terms as Assam CM, Tarun Gogoi is feeling the heat

• Anti-incumbency is on the rise and Congress now needs partners

To tie up or not

• Many in the party want a tie-up with Badruddin Ajmal\'s AIUDF

• Several, including Gogoi don\'t favour the idea

More in the story

• What are the options for Congress

• What is BJP up to

The Congress has gone all out to woo 'secular parties' in Assam including the minority-dominated All-India United Democratic Front (AIUDF) for a 'grand understanding' to defeat the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the Assembly polls next year.

Soon after the elections in Bihar, Chief minister Tarun Gogoi had ruled out an alliance, but indicated that an understanding was possible with anti-BJP parties, including Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) and even RTI activist Akhil Gogoi-led Krishak Mukti Sangram Samiti.

Among all these parties, it is the AIUDF that is expected to win the maximum number of seats and increase its tally of 18 in the previous elections. Many observers are of the opinion that it would comfortably be able to play the role of "kingmaker" next year.

Divided house

But Congress appears to be sharply divided on whether it should firm up a pre-poll alliance with the AIUDF or only an understanding in some constituencies. A section led by some senior leaders in New Delhi has made a case for a pact ahead of the polls.

But Chief Minister Gogoi and a majority of the legislators are against the proposal saying it can severely affect the party's performance.

Perfume baron Badruddin Ajmal founded the AIUDF in 2006 on an anti-Congress plank. It opened its account with 10 seats, which increased to 18 in the previous Assembly elections. Its support base is mainly in the minority-dominated constituencies in central and lower Assam, which is why it is often dubbed as a party of Bangladeshi immigrants.

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The huge turn-out in the rallies addressed by Opposition leaders in the past couple of months could be an indication of an emerging anti-incumbency wave in the state. The Congress stands a better chance of performing well in Upper Assam, primarily inhabited by Hindu and Christian indigenous communities including the tea tribes.

A pre-poll pact with the AIUDF could prove to be a disadvantage for the Congress in these areas since sentiments are running high against immigrants from Bangladesh. Besides, the BJP has already made inroads and it had won all seats in Upper Assam in last year's general elections.

But political compulsion has forced the Congress to turn to AIUDF as its influence among the minority voter has been steadily increasing.

Based on the 2011 census, some experts estimate Bangladeshi Muslim immigrants to play a deciding role in as many as 49 seats of a total of 126 in the Assembly.

That the Congress has been losing ground in these pockets has been revealed in the previous two Assembly polls. Therefore, in the existing circumstances, a pre-poll understanding would have been ideal for the Congress, but the AIUDF has not shown any interest yet.

The rigid stance of the AIUDF has left many Congress legislator upbeat since it could have also meant playing into the hands of the BJP. A senior functionary of the party explained that the possibility of polarisation of Hindu votes could not be ruled out if there is an understanding with the AIUDF.

There are at least 40 seats where Bengali Hindu voters could play a deciding role. They had voted for the Congress in the previous Assembly polls, following a favourable stance adopted by the party on their citizenship.

Many immigrants from this community were earlier labeled as 'D Voters', or doubtful voters, and were ineligible to cast their votes. But the BJP has also been constantly trying to woo this community. Only two months ago, the Centre had issued a notification allowing members of all minority communities from neighbouring countries who came to India to stay on even if they did not have valid documents.

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The Congress has reasons to be concerned over developments in the districts administered by tribal autonomous councils, once unshakeable bastions of the party. In October, several Congress members of the Dima Hasao Autonomous District Council crossed over to the BJP, toppling the Congress-ruled body and helping the saffron party capture power.

Earlier, in the Tiwa Autonomous Council the BJP and the AGP prevented the Congress from assuming power though it had emerged as the single-largest party.

Meanwhile, the ruling Bodoland People's Front (BPF) in the Bodoland Territorial Area Districts (BTAD) has already given ample indication that it would go with the BJP in these elections. Its chief Hagrama Mohilary had recently called on BJP President Amit Shah to discuss the possibility of a tie-up in Assam.

He has also taken the lead to stitch a coalition among nine tribal organisations called the United People's Front. It has indicated that it would contest in at least 30 seats next year and the possibility of a tie-up with the Congress is almost nil.

During the previous Assembly polls, Chief Minister Gogoi refused to accept the growing clout of the AIUDF and had reportedly turned down the suggestion of a senior Congress leader for an alliance with the party.

During the campaign, he is even known to have sarcastically asked "Who is Badruddin Ajmal?" Clearly, political equations have changed in Assam leaving the Congress with little scope of manoeuver, except hoping for an "understanding" with the AIUDF.

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