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Oscars 2017 predictions: Will Moonlight do a Spotlight and upset La La Land?

Sahil Bhalla | Updated on: 27 February 2017, 14:34 IST
(Los Angeles Times/Getty Images)

Awards season in the film industry reaches its climax this Sunday, 26 February with the 89th Academy Awards at the Dolby Theatre in Hollywood, California.

The Oscar nominations for 2017, thankfully, don't lack diversity. Many black actors and actresses, and even a certain director, are expected to take home big prizes. Who knows, maybe a movie with a black director and a black cast will even win the biggest prize of the night.

Competition is a wonderful thing, and we'll just see how many of those record-equalling 14 nominations La La Land can convert into trophies. Last year it was Spotlight that clinched an unexpected victory over The Revenant. Will the same be happening this year?

This year's host is late night comedian Jimmy Kimmel – a welcome change from last years host, Chris Rock, who was underwhelming. In a year of Trump, Trump and more Trump, there is expected to be Trump-bashing in equal parts from the hosts and the various acceptance speeches.

But awards will still remain the biggest takeaway, rather literally, on the night, so let's get right on to predicting who's going to win.

Kevin Winter/Getty Images/AFP
01
Best Picture

Nominees:

  • Arrival
  • Fences
  • Hacksaw Ridge
  • Hell or High Water
  • Hidden Figures
  • La La Land
  • Lion
  • Manchester By The Sea
  • Moonlight

Who will win: Moonlight

Who should win: Moonlight

Outside chance: Manchester By The Sea

La La Land has racked up more awards than anyone could have imagined. It's also, crucially, edged out Moonlight in several of the preceding big award nights. What might be in Moonlight's favour is the La La Land backlash among Oscar voters.

While La La Land may win undeservedly, the movie of the year, and the one that deserves all the accolades, is Barry Jenkins' Moonlight, a movie about a young black man living in America. With a black director and a black cast, this deeply moving tale of Chiron might just do a Spotlight and cause a major upset.

It may be a two-horse race, as it has been all season long, but Manchester By The Sea, with its strong storyline and tightly knit camerawork, has a chance to surprise. Especially led by Casey Affleck's superb performance.

02
Actor in a Leading Role

Nominees:

  • Casey Affleck, Manchester By The Sea
  • Andrew Garflied, Hacksaw Ridge
  • Ryan Gosling, La La Land
  • Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic
  • Denzel Washington, Fences

Who will win: Casey Affleck, Manchester By The Sea

Who should win: Casey Affleck, Manchester By The Sea

Outside chance: Denzel Washington, Fences

This one is going to be a close call. With the backlash among Oscar voters, La La Land star Ryan Gosling has fallen off the radar. A win for him is pretty much unlikely. It basically comes down to Casey Affleck in the moving drama about taking care of his nephew in Manchester By The Sea or Denzel Washington as a powerful father in the play-adaptation Fences.

I'm going to go with Casey Affleck, despite his recent sexual harassment controversy and Washington's win at the SAG Awards.

03
Actress in a Leading Role

Nominees:

  • Isabelle Huppert, Elle
  • Ruth Negga, Loving
  • Natalie Portman, Jackie
  • Emma Stone, La La Land
  • Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins

Who will win: Emma Stone, La La Land

Who should win: Isabelle Huppert, Elle

Outside chance: Natalie Portman, Jackie

Emma Stone has all the momentum with her. Ever since La La Land's release, critics and viewers alike have had barely anything negative to say about Stone's performance. Isabelle Huppert, meanwhile, is far more deserving for her role as a rape victim in Elle, where she gave a stunning performance. In a year when she also had a strong performance in Things To Come, it is hard to rule her out.

The outside chance goes to Natalie Portman who portrayed the role of Jackie Kennedy in Jackie, but that one is highly unlikely. 

04
Actor in a Supporting Role

Nominees:

  • Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
  • Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water
  • Lucas Hedges, Manchester By The Sea
  • Dev Patel, Lion
  • Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals

Who will win: Mahershala Ali, Moonlight

Who should win: Mahershala Ali, Moonlight

Outside chance: Dev Patel, Lion

Mahershala Ali, playing the mentor to Chiron in Moonlight, gives an understated but nuanced performance that had everyone enthralled. If anyone has a chance of upsetting Ali, it would be Dev Patel in a Slumdog Millionaire-esque performance as a young adult on a mission to find his birth mother in Lion.

05
Actress in a Supporting Role

Nominees:

  • Viola Davis, Fences
  • Naomie Harris, Moonlight
  • Nicole Kidman, Lion
  • Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures
  • Michelle Williams, Manchester By The Sea

Who will win: Viola Davis, Fences

Who should win: Viola Davis, Fences

Outside chance: Michelle Williams, Manchester By The Sea

Absolutely no one following the awards season this time around thinks that Viola Davis will be beaten. If anyone even dares to offer a suggestion, it would be Michelle Williams. This one is pretty much locked up. What gives Davis an even greater chance is the fact that the Supporting Actress category is the most successful category for black nominees.

06
Animated Feature Film

Nominees:

  • Kubo And The Two Strings
  • Moana
  • My Life As A Zucchini
  • The Red Turtle
  • Zootopia

Who will win: Zootopia

Who should win: Zootopia

Outside chance: Kubo And The Two Strings

Zootpia has been winning almost every award it was eligible for this season, including a Critics’ Choice Award, a Golden Globe, and six Annie Awards. There's no reason for its momentum to slowdown just before the Oscars. While Kubo and the Two String managed to beat Zootopia at the BAFTAs, there is no reason to think a repeat may happen. Who didn’t like Zootopia?

07
Best Cinematography

Nominees:

  • Bradford Young, Arrival
  • Linus Sandgren, La La Land
  • Greig Fraser, Lion
  • James Laxton, Moonlight
  • Rodrigo Prieto, Silence

Who will win: Linus Sandgren, La La Land

Who should win: Bradford Young, Arrival

Outside chance: Greig Fraser, Lion

Emmanuel Lubezki is probably not going to win for a fourth year in a row following his wins for Gravity, Birdman, and The Revenant because he isn’t nominated. While Arrival is yet again not getting the love it deserves, La La Land is running away with undeserved love.

Bradford Young may be the first African-American cinematographer ever nominated for the award, but his magnificent work in Arrival is going to be overlooked by the work done by Sandgren in La La Land.

If anyone has a chance for an upset, it is Greig Fraser for his work in Lion.

08
Best Costume Design

Nominees:

  • Joanna Johnston, Allied
  • Colleen Atwood, Fantastic Beasts and Where To Find Them
  • Consolata Boyle, Florence Foster Jenkins
  • Madeline Fontaine, Jackie
  • Mary Zophres, La La Land

Who will win: Madeline Fontaine, Jackie

Who should win: Madeline Fontaine, Jackie

Outside chance: Mary Zophres, La La Land

Barring a total sweep of the Oscars by La La Land, this award will be going to Madeline Fontaine for her work in recreating Jackie Kennedy’s closet in Natalie Portman-starrer Jackie. This isn’t a surety though.

09
Best Directing

Nominees:

  • Denis Villeneuve, Arrival
  • Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge
  • Damien Chazelle, La La Land
  • Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester By The Sea
  • Barry Jenkins, Moonlight

Who will win: Barry Jenkins, Moonlight

Who should win: Damien Chazelle, La La Land

Outside Chance: Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester By The Sea

Three of the last five Best Director Oscars have gone to a film that didn’t win Best Picture. What’s likely is that, like last year, Moonlight will play the spoiler with Best Picture but lose out in a host of other awards including Best Director to Damien Chazelle.

The slim outside chance goes to Kenneth Lonergan, but that is unlikely to happen. A Mel Gibson win, meanwhile, will be the shock of the night. 

10
Best Documentary (Feature)

Nominees:

  • Fire at Sea
  • I Am Not Your Negro
  • Life, Animated
  • O.J.: Made in America
  • 13th

Who will win: O.J.: Made in America

Who should win: O.J.: Made in America

Outside chance: 13th

A 467-minute opus on the rise and fall of O.J. Simpson. Who can topple Ezra Edelman’s gripping achievement? It’s already won the P.G.A. and D.G.A. Awards. Don’t look for an upset here. Period.

11
Best Film Editing

Nominees:

  • Joe Walker, Arrival
  • John Gilbert, Hacksaw Ridge
  • Jake Roberts, Hell or High Water
  • Tom Cross, La La Land
  • Nat Sanders and Joi McMillon, Moonlight

Who will win: Tom Cross, La La Land

Who should win: Joe Walker, Arrival

Outside chance: Nat Sanders and Joi McMillon, Moonlight

At the last three Oscars, Best Picture and Best Film Editing have gone to different films. If Moonlight is indeed to upset La La Land for Best Picture, then the latter will walk away with Best Film Editing.

Joe Walker was a big winner at the American Cinema Editor Awards back in January and deservedly so. We know that Arrival isn't getting any love from the Academy though. I’m going with La La Land here even though there are better options.

12
Best Foreign Language Film

Nominees:

  • Denmark: Land of Mine
  • Sweden: A Man Called Ove
  • Iran: The Salesman
  • Australia: Tanna
  • Germany: Toni Erdmann

Who will win: The Salesman

Who should win: The Salesman

Outside chance: Toni Erdmann

Going into Awards season, it was all Toni Erdmann with the momentum and critics praise. Thanks to Donald Trump becoming President and the Muslim Travel Ban that barred the Iranian director of The Salesman, Asghar Farhadi, from attending the Oscars, things have changed.

If Farhadi wins, this will be his second golden statue after winning for A Separation in 2012.

13
Best Music (Original Score)

Nominees:

  • Mica Levi, Jackie
  • Justin Hurwitz, La La Land
  • Dustin O'Halloran and Hauschka, Lion
  • Nicholas Britell, Moonlight
  • Thomas Newman, Passengers

Who will win: Justin Hurwitz, La La Land

Who should win: Justin Hurwitz, La La Land

Outside chance: Nicholas Britell, Moonlight

Who could deprive this year’s only nominated musical from Best Original Score? This is definitely Hurwitz' to lose.

14
Best Music (Original Song)

Nominees:

  • Audition (The Fools Who Dream), La La Land
  • Can’t Stop the Feeling, Trolls
  • City of Stars, La La Land
  • The Empty Chair, Jim: The James Foley Story
  • How Far I’ll Go, Moana

Who will win: City of Stars, La La Land

Who should win: City of Stars, La La Land

Outside chance: How Far I’ll Go, Moana

Again, it’s La La Land’s to lose with two songs nominated for Best Original Song. City of Stars has the edge over Audition.

15
Best Production Design

Nominees:

  • Patrice Vermette, Arrival
  • Stuart Craig, Fantastic Beasts and Where To Find Them
  • Jess Gonchor, Hail, Caesar!
  • David Wasco, La La Land
  • Guy Hendrix Dyas, Passengers

Who will win: David Wasco, La La Land

Who should win: Patrice Vermette, Arrival

Outside chance: Stuart Craig, Fantastic Beasts and Where To Find Them

It’s a known fact that Best Picture frontrunner sweeps the lesser known awards and this night will be no different. Arrival will once again be overlooked and David Wasco will be winning for La La Land.

16
Best Writing (Adapted Screenplay)

Nominees:

  • Eric Heisserer, Arrival
  • August Wilson, Fences
  • Allison Schroeder and Theodore Melfi, Hidden Figures
  • Luke Davies, Lion
  • Barry Jenkins, Moonlight

Who will win: Barry Jenkins, Moonlight

Who should win: Barry Jenkins, Moonlight

Outside chance: August Wilson, Fences

Other than Best Supporting Actor, this is the only sure shot category for Moonlight. It did win the Original Screenplay award at the Writers Guild awards but, that controversy aside, it will walk away with this prize.

17
Best Writing (Original Screenplay)

Nominees:

  • Taylor Sheridan, Hell or High Water
  • Damien Chazelle, La La Land
  • Yorgos Lanthimos, Efthimis Filippou, The Lobster
  • Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester By The Sea
  • Mike Mills, 20th Century Woman

Who will win: Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester By The Sea

Who should win: Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester By The Sea

Outside chance: Damien Chazelle, La La Land

Kenneth Lonergan has been nominated twice before in this category - You Can Count on Me (2001) and Gangs of New York (2003). Lonergan should be walking away with the prize come Sunday, but one can’t be sure of La La Land’s momentum. This is a dead race between the two and it’s hard to predict which will win. I’m gonna go with Kenneth Lonergan by a whisker.

It’s safe to say that after garnering 14 nominations (tying the record), La La Land will be walking away with the most number of golden statues. The question to be asked is: Will it walk away with the most important awards on the night? I’m thinking probably not. With less than 24 hours to go, one doesn’t have to wait long to find out.

If you're in India and want to catch the show you can do so on Star Movies or Star Movies Select HD starting at 5:30 AM on Monday, 27 February. Again, if you don't own a TV, there are always multiple ways to catch it on streaming.

First published: 26 February 2017, 11:08 IST
 
Sahil Bhalla @IMSahilBhalla

Sahil is a correspondent at Catch. A gadget freak, he loves offering free tech support to family and friends. He studied at Sarah Lawrence College, New York and worked previously for Scroll. He selectively boycotts fast food chains, worries about Arsenal, and travels whenever and wherever he can. Sahil is an unapologetic foodie and a film aficionado.